Drumroll, please.

It's that magical time of the year when the film industry falls in love with itself again (as if it had ever really fallen out of love with itself). Thursday morning was that magical morning when Oscar hopefuls, having spent long, wide eyed hours ping-ponging between hope and despair, pretended to have been asleep when they received the early morning calls from their agents. And this moment is that magical moment when I, a blogger with no relevant qualifications whatsoever, present you with my predictions for the winners.

Actor in a Leading Role
Who should win: Mickey Rourke. This poor man will continue to be the butt of substance abuse jokes throughout awards season, and should almost win on that basis alone.
Who will win: Mickey Rourke. This town loves a comeback.

Actor in a Supporing Role
Who should win: The divine PSH.
Who will win: Heath Ledger. I'll make the observation Ricky Gervais probably wanted to make at the Golden Globes and say that the only thing better for your career than doing a Holocaust movie is being dead.

Actress in a Leading Role
Who should win: The divine Ms. Streep. I know some scenery was mercilessly chewed in that little nun movie, but Ms. Streep was an incredible delight as the bitchy, hardcore, forthright Sister Aloysius.
Who will win: Kate Winslet. In addition to the aforementioned Holocaust/Oscar correlation, she's been nominated without a win for something like a hundred years now.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Who should win: Amy Adams. Only someone raised in the LDS Church could pull off such insane earnestness without veering into parody.
Who will win: Viola Davis. People have been raving about this performance. I was also impressed by her, but mostly just agitated at how badly she needed a Kleenex. There were tears and snot EVERYWHERE!

Animated Feature Film
Who should win: Wall-E. Who can resist that goddamn doe-eyed little robot?
Who will win: See above.

Art Design/Cinematography/Costume Design/Makeup/Visual Effects
Benjamin Button sweep.

Documentary Feature

I've seen none of them, but I've heard really good things about Man on Wire. People say that Werner Herzog might garner the sentiment vote for Encounters at the End of the World, but I think his fan base is a little too fringe to throw substantial weight at the Oscars.

Documentary Short

Strictly on the basis of subject matter, I'd like to see The Conscience of Nhem En win because I think the Khmer Rouge is a subject worthy of attention, especially in a town where trust fund hipsters traipse around in Mao and Che t-shirts.

Animated Short
I've been seriously bummed out about this category ever since a mediocre, slapstick-ridden interpretation of Peter and the Wolf beat out the sublime Madame Tutli-Putli. I abstain.

Live Action Short
Spielzugland. It's like Life is Beautiful, only backwards.

Sound Editing/Sound Mixing
Sorry, soundies. Don't care. Kindly rein in your incredibly long acceptance speeches.

Screenplay
I can't seem to work up much enthusiasm for any of the contenders this year. Readers, I toss this one to you.

Film Editing

Slumdog. Frantic, music video style editing has entered its heyday.

Foreign Language Film

This is a tough one. People are raving about The Class, but Waltz With Bashir has the subject matter edge.

Score

Slumdog.

Song
Who should win: Jai Ho. This little tune is catchy as all get-out. Plus I've loved Indian pop music ever since my grad school besty introduced it to me years ago. It's hard to listen to it and be in a bad mood at the same time.
Who will win: Down to Earth. Two of the three best song nominees are from Slumdog and they'll fatally split the vote.

Directing
Slumdog Millionaire. Isn't it weird that everyone keeps referring to this as the little movie that could, in spite of the fact that Danny Boyle has been an established director for over a decade?

Best Picture
Who should win: Meh. I've seen all the nominees except The Reader, and thought they were all excellent, but not phenomenal.
Who will win: I think Slumdog is going to sweep in on a giant, contrived, melodramatic dark horse and ride off with it. But so be it. Maybe what this country needs is a little singy-dancey star crossed romancey.